Wednesday, December 5, 2007

Driving Vs. Flying?

The safest mode of transportation is defined as the number of fatalities per
passenger mile. Obviously, the automobile distances are smaller than that of
an airplane, hence the definition is skewed toward airplane safety. The
number of accidents in an airplane are relatively few compared to the
traffic, the effects of such accidents are of course usually fatal.

According to Jim B. of the DOE
"...Safe means without accidents that
result in economic loss, bodily injury, or fatality. Survival rate is not the
same thing as safety.

In the US, each year there are about 40,000 deaths per year in automobile
accidents vs. about 200 in air transport. To put this in perspective, the
chance of dying in an automobile accident is about 1000 times more than
winning a typical state lottery in a year.

If we ignore property and bodily damage and focus on fatalities only, we
should look at fatality rates per passenger mile traveled. This require some
research. You can go to the National Transportation Safety board website
(http://www.itsasafety.org) to do some research or look at a summary table
here (http://hazmat.dot.gov/riskcompare.htm). According to the latter, each
year in the US 1 out of 6800 drivers dies in an auto accident. The rate for
airline passengers is 1 in 1.6 million. The same table shows that per
passenger mile, air travel is safer by more than a factor of two. I doubt
this last figure; I think it should be about 100x safer, because I guess we
drive and fly the same number of miles (give or take a factor or 2-5) per
year, yet fatalities are 200 times higher for autos than for airlines."



http://www.bts.gov/publications/national_transportation_statistics
/2002/html/table_02_01.html

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